Welcome back as we continue to look at the effect of touchdown variance on dynasty values! While last week we discussed some intriguing trading opportunities at the wide receiver position, this time we take a look at running backs.

 

 

In previous installments of this series, I compared actual touchdown rates to career touchdown rates, but we’re changing things up for the running backs. This position group is so dependent on usage and offensive environment that I’m instead baking those factors into a home-made expected touchdowns model, and then comparing each player’s actual touchdowns to the expected touchdowns. 

 

Consider somebody like Derrick Henry, who simply had way more opportunities in goal-to-go situations on a loaded Ravens offense than he did the previous season in Tennessee. Using expected touchdowns is much more sensitive to a player’s role and usage than a simple career average would be. 

 

Without further ado, I present to you 2024’s biggest over-achievers and under-achievers. 

 

 

Sells

 

James Cook

 

In the very top-right quadrant of over-achievers, you will find Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and James Cook. Let’s be honest, while Cook is a very good player who deserves his flowers, he’s the odd man out of this bunch.

 

Granted, Cook had an above-average number of expected touchdowns, owing primarily to his increased usage around the goal line on an elite offense. On the other hand, he ran extremely pure on long breakaway touchdown runs. While he’s an dynamic player who will have more explosive runs than your average back, a whopping six touchdowns (36 fantasy points!) over expectation is a big difference. 

 

And unlike the other players in his cluster, Cook is very dependent on these touchdowns to return RB1 value for you. The rest of his counting stats are decent but not elite on an extremely unconcentrated offense, one that might get even less concentrated next year as Ty Johnson continues to impress in a pass-catching role and Ray Davis gets more involved.

 

Looking at James Cook’s season, I was somewhat shocked to see both his rushing attempts and receptions were down from the year before. With a looming contract holdout that might crack the door open even more for Ray Davis to rotate in, you need to thread a needle to get even close to last year’s RB1 finish.  

 

 

As for what to do with him, I would give up any second rounder and even a late first to tier up from Cook to De’Von Achane, somebody who I believe has just as much touchdown upside but a much stronger expected workload, particularly through the air. Rebuilding teams should try to get picks for Cook as soon as his contract extension is announced, assuming the extension comes together.

 

 

Buys

 

Aaron Jones

 

If you’re presiding over a rebuilding roster, please don’t waste your time with Aaron Jones. However, any contending roster in need of running back depth should get their hands on him while the vibes are bad due to the Jordan Mason acquisition. 

 

The Vikings acquired Jordan Mason to be the 1B to Jones’ 1A, and Aaron Jones has never needed a massive share of the workload to return value. He’s still an efficient player, and he’s extremely effective through the air.

 

Let’s get to the important question: Why did Aaron Jones underperform his expected touchdowns last year, and is it because he’s washed?

 

Simply put, the Vikings couldn’t block to save their lives in goal-to-go situations last year, but this year they’ve completely revamped the interior of their offensive line. Between these improvements, and good old luck, expect Jones’s five touchdown underperformance to bounce back. 

 

I don’t expect Jordan Mason to become Minnesota’s set-and-forget goal line back, and whatever he offsets from Jones will more than be made up for by an expected 30 fantasy points worth of regression to the mean. 

 

Trade a middling prospect plus a third rounder for Jones and enjoy the peace of mind he adds to your lineup. 

 

 

De’Von Achane

 

I know it’s scary how the Dolphins offense constantly appears to perpetually be a Tua Tagovailoa concussion away from falling apart, but De’Von Achane has game-breaking upside packaged together with a rare receiving floor. 

 

Pair that with positive touchdown regression, and consider that this chart doesn’t even capture Achane’s ability to score touchdowns through the air, and you have a high-end RB1 who is more affordable than the other players in his tier. 

 

I’d offer my 2026 first rounder plus a decent prospect or veteran for Achane, and I’d be willing to add on if that first offer elicited a counter. At the end of the day, Achane is a league-winner with Tua on the field, his offense should improve from last year, and for all we know Mike McDaniel might get back in the lab and figure out a way to be merely below-average the next time Tua misses time. Also, the Dolphins' offensive line might block somebody this year, for a change. 

 

 

Conclusion

 

For the running back position, particularly in non-full PPR formats, touchdowns reign supreme. For a position that sees so much variation in terms of usage and offensive environment, it becomes important to develop a notion of expected touchdowns, and to carry that awareness into trade discussions. 

 

While this article is framed in terms of buys and sells, I also encourage you to simply look at the expected touchdowns axis and get a sense of which running backs are in roles where the juice is worth the squeeze. 

 

With running back being the most fungible position group in fantasy football, there is a lot of leeway for dynasty owners to wheel and deal with them. Rebuilders often don't want anything to do with their running backs, while contenders will be trying to find whichever ones might carry their roster through the fantasy playoffs.

 

The end result is that there is a vibrant and active trade market for dynasty running backs, and becoming familiar with the running back regression landscape will give you a leg up over your league mates.