Welcome back as we continue to look at the effect of touchdown variance on dynasty values. While last week we discussed some intriguing buy and sell opportunities at the quarterback position, this time we take a look at the wide receiver position.
While wide receivers, especially in PPR leagues, may not be quite as dependent on touchdown luck as pocket passers, there are still cases in which severe touchdown variance affects how the dynasty community remembers a particular wide receiver season, and this can lead to trade value for shrewd owners.
To be clear, we shouldn’t blindly buy all the players below the diagonal and sell all the players above it. But, for certain players who I believe are trending up for 2025, last year’s touchdown variance may have contributed to pushing the dynasty community’s perception of them down to a spot where they became highly affordable.
Buy These WRs
Calvin Ridley (TEN)
Calvin Ridley was one of my favorite buys in dynasty fantasy football even before starting this exercise, and I’m even more interested in him now. Currently, he’s a highly affordable WR52 on KeepTradeCut (caveats about trade calculators aside, I need something to estimate his value in the community), which implies you might be able to trade a late 2nd rounder, or somebody like Jalen McMillan for him.
Let’s get a couple negatives out of the way. No, there’s no point in buying Ridley if you aren’t a contender, with him turning 31 years old in December. Additionally, he’s not the same player he once was on the Falcons, and the “real” Calvin Ridley at this point is probably closer to the post-suspension version than the enticing Falcons version.
Looking to the positives, Ridley is the clear top receiver on the Tennessee Titans, and in 2024, he actually played quite well whenever quarterback Will Levis wasn’t on the field.
Additionally, he’s heading for a major quarterback upgrade, with first overall pick Cam Ward coming in to replace Levis and Mason Rudolph. While we can’t assume that Cam Ward will be real-life good at football, he's exactly the kind of quarterback who can support a fantasy receiver.
Ward is a fearless gunslinger who has a confidence in his ability to force the ball into his first read that borders on psychotic, but he’s such a talented thrower that it works more often than you’d think. His floor is a Jameis Winston-esque high-variance player who zips the ball around the field. For Ridley’s purposes, that’ll do us just fine.
Between strong peripherals, a projected quarterback upgrade, and better touchdown luck, Ridley could easily score like a high-end WR2 this year for a WR5 price.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Buying into the Dolphins offense is scary after a 2024 down year that saw both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle severely burn dynasty owners, but let’s do a thought experiment. Is it more likely that:
1. Both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill became worse than Jonnu Smith overnight
2. The Dolphins offense was completely derailed by a perfect storm of bad circumstances
I can’t promise Waddle will return to the 2022 version of him that went for over 1,300 yards, but at a WR27 price on KeepTradeCut, there is way more floor than upside left here. If Waddle fails to return your investment on a WR3 price, it won’t be by much, and you’ll have outs to recoup your losses whenever Tyreek Hill finally leaves or retires.
However, there is a big ceiling case here that we can buy into more cheaply than ever before. The Dolphins offense is much more likely to take a big step forward than it is to stagnate or take a step back, and its production is likely to be highly concentrated between De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Waddle.
Additionally, if Tyreek Hill’s down year really was due to his aging, Waddle could be the next man up for the motion and designed usage that was a fantasy gold mine for Hill two years ago and for Jonnu Smith last year.
Similarly to Calvin Ridley, I am interested in Waddle for reasons other than his touchdown rates, but I believe last year’s rotten touchdown luck helped further tank the vibes around Waddle, so much so that his owner may want off that ride.
Sell These WRs
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
Going forward, McLaurin can be expected to post a higher touchdown rate than his career average now that he finally has a real quarterback. However, it won’t come anything close to the blistering 11.4% from 2024.
While the perception around McLaurin is that he had a breakout season with Jayden Daniels as his quaterback, he actually posted target, reception, and receiving yardage numbers that were extremely in-line with the rest of his career.
Going into his age 30 season, McLaurin has handed his owners a sell window. He’s a very good real-life football player who historically does move the needle enough in a game format that is dominated by spike weeks and “power law” players.
While he helped a lot of teams make the fantasy playoffs last year, it’s a good time to thank him and move off for more youth or upside. That being said, stronger contenders can justifiably let him age on their roster if there aren’t any deals available.
However, reloading teams and rebuilding teams should absolutely sell him right now. If touchdown regression were the only reason to fade McLaurin, I might feel less strongly about this. But McLaurin also seems destined not to be full-go at training camp as he tries to cash in on one last contract extension. That usually means players start their seasons slow, with studs like Brandon Aiyuk and CeeDee Lamb not even being immune.
Between a likely impending slow start and good-not-great production going forward, it’s best to flip Terry McLaurin for higher upside or insulation now before these negatives rear their heads.
Tee Higgins (CIN)
Tee Higgins is a young, good football player tied to an excellent quarterback that is likely to be chasing negative game scripts due to the Bengals’ awful defense, so there isn’t necessarily an urgent need to trade him.
However, Higgins’ value is at its very ceiling, so it might be time to shop around and take a profit. Historically, Higgins is not a fun player to own, as he tends to miss time with soft tissue injuries and he can be streaky. Right now, it’s easy to forget this history because the Bengals offense closed the season on such a high, but talk to your league mates and I guarantee at least one of them has emotional scarring from owning him.
There is no need whatsoever to sell Higgins below cost, but reloading or rebuilding dynasty rosters need to be bold and proactive about adding value, and selling a player archetype at its absolute peak is one way to do so.
As far as what contenders might do with Higgins, he’s my favorite player to tier up from. He’s the most valuable WR2 (meaning WR2 on his own team) in the league, but he gets your foot in the door for the truly elite dynasty assets.
Conclusion
While wide receivers aren’t quite as touchdown-dependent as pocket quarterbacks, touchdown variance can affect how the dynasty community perceives a wide receiver, which in turn affects his trade value during the offseason.
For players such as Calvin Ridley and Jaylen Waddle, it can create unnaturally cheap prices for two guys who have a lot of positives going into 2025. In other cases, such as for Terry McLaurin and Tee Higgins, it can create the impression of a breakout season that results in a sell window for teams that aren’t imminently competing.
By tiering up from the players who rode touchdown variance to career years, or by buying players who are trending up after seasons plagued by bad touchdown variance, we can incrementally add value to our dynasty rosters.