There are two main goals that fantasy managers should have when going into their draft: target the guys who will boom, and avoid the guys who will bust. No one wants a bunch of unproductive fantasy players on their roster.
In terms of avoiding players who will bust, it is important to have an understanding of their situation for the upcoming year and analyze the ways they have been “productive.” I have done just that and have found four players I believe are going to produce less than what their ADP has them at.
Here are my top four bust candidates for the 2025 fantasy football season:
Zay Flowers (BAL)
ADP 52.5 – WR 24
I love Zay Flowers as an NFL player, but his lack of crazy fantasy production has me concerned for him in the 2025 season. He fit the “boom or bust” criteria fairly well last year, topping 20 PPR points three times yet falling under 12 points 11 different times. Some of his weeks were extremely frustrating, as he put up fantasy totals of 5.3, 2, and 4 over a five-week stretch.
Last year, Flowers led the Baltimore Ravens’ receiving room with 1,059 yards and an ugly four touchdowns, finishing as the WR 25 overall. While this does not seem like a terrible year, his future scares me.
For starters, star quarterback Lamar Jackson had an MVP-caliber year last year, passing for just under 4,200 yards and 41 touchdowns. Flowers, being their so-called “wide receiver one,” caught just four of those touchdowns from Jackson.
Jackson clearly likes to target his tight ends more than his receivers, as Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely caught a combined 17 touchdowns. Not only this, but Rashod Bateman had more than double the number of touchdowns as Flowers, with nine.
Jackson will need to have an even better year than he did last year to give Flowers more fantasy relevance, and it will be extremely hard for him to top his miraculous 2024 season. I suspect regression in Jackson’s 2025 season, directly leading to a steep decline for Flowers.
Xavier Worthy (KC)
ADP 56.9 – WR 26
Xavier Worthy of the Kansas City Chiefs is already being drafted higher than his finish of WR 32 last year, and I am not touching him this year. While he showcased his ability to be a deep threat numerous times last year, I am not expecting him to have an increased role in 2025.
Worthy needed stud receiver Rashee Rice to go down to injury to crack the top 35 in fantasy points, and with Rice coming back this year, I see no world where Worthy can have a better year. Rice will be a target hog in this Chiefs offense, and Worthy will see a major decrease in his target share.
Along with this, in three of his four highest-scoring weeks, Worthy needed an average of 10.3 targets to spark fantasy relevance. Rice’s return will give Worthy almost no opportunity to receive this much work again.
Part of me also suspects future Hall-of-Famer Travis Kelce to take a step forward back to his old self, especially if this is going to be his last year. With Rice and Kelce both taking Worthy’s targets, I fear that Worthy is going to see regression in 2025.
Isaiah Pacheco (KC)
ADP 65.4 – RB 23
Isaiah Pacheco, teammate of Worthy, is my next bust candidate I have for 2025. There are two major concerns I have for Pacheco being his health and situation.
Last year, Pacheco suffered a major injury in week two, causing him to miss ten total weeks of football. Everyone was excited for his return in week 13; however, Pacheco did not look the same.
After starting off the season putting up back-to-back over 15-point performances, Pacheco struggled to find his groove again. From weeks 13 to 17, he averaged a mere five fantasy points per game. This number is alarming, and fantasy managers should be worried.
Not only this, but Pacheco’s situation got worse over the off-season. Kareem Hunt resigned with the Chiefs, and Elijah Mitchell signed a one-year deal. To make matters worse, the Chiefs drafted running back Brashard Smith in round seven of this year's draft, and the Chiefs are known for getting studs in that round (hence Pacheco’s rookie season).
Pacheco did not have this type of competition going into 2024; the Chiefs seem to want to start integrating a “running back by committee” approach into their offense. Along with this, I can see Smith getting the "Jerick McKinnon" role in this offense, only worsening Pacheco’s value.
The numbers don’t lie, and I feel like Pacheco is in for a down year. His brutal injury caused him to lose a step, and the running back room is much more loaded. Don’t expect Pacheco to put up similar numbers to what he is known for.
DJ Moore (CHI)
ADP 43 – WR 21
After drafting Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in the first two rounds of the 2025 draft, the Chicago Bears are loaded at the receiving positions. Even better, they were able to get star offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to take the head coach position.
Because of this, though, I am skeptical about what DJ Moore’s volume is going to look like. In a crowded receiving room, it is impossible to predict what the target shares will look like, but I have a feeling that Moore will see less work than he did last year.
The Bears invested high draft capital in Loveland and Burden, so it is almost a guarantee that they will see plenty of playing time. Plus, former first-round pick Rome Odunze is looking to make a major stride in his second year.
In terms of Moore, he is coming off of one of his lesser seasons, not even cracking 1,000 yards. It doesn’t help that Caleb Williams was not a first-year star, but I am still nervous about Moore’s 2025 fantasy production.
With Odunze, Loveland, and Burden, I sense that Moore will slowly start to diminish as a relevant fantasy receiver, as there are way too many mouths to feed in that offense. Do not be surprised if Moore has an even worse year than 2024.