As the NBA Finals approach, we continue our comprehensive mock draft series with the fourth-round selections that could define your fantasy season. This group of players offers intriguing upside mixed with notable question marks, representing a sweet spot where league-winning value meets calculated risk.
With rounds one, two, and three of our head-to-head points league targets covered, we now present the fourth round of our Way-Too-Early Mock Draft series. (Statistics as of May 27, 2025)
31. LaMelo Ball
(PG, Charlotte Hornets)
2024-25 stats: 25.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG
7.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.3 BPG
40.5 FG%, 33.9 3P%, 84.3 FT%
Over his first five NBA seasons, LaMelo Ball has struggled to stay on the court and gained a reputation for inefficient stat sheet stuffing that does not contribute to winning basketball. In 2024-25, Ball played just 47 games and underwent two procedures in March addressing injuries to his wrist and ankle. He also shot a career-low 40.5% from the field and the Hornets went 19-63, their worst record in the Ball era.
At the same time, his counting stats are hard to ignore in a fantasy context. He averaged a career-high 25.2 PPG and paired that with 7.4 APG, enough for consideration in the first three rounds regardless of his other stats. It’s worth noting that Ball’s efficiency and chucking habit can be at least partially attributed to his lack of help on Charlotte’s roster. Brandon Miller went down early and will be back, along with the fourth overall pick in June’s draft, giving Ball a great opportunity to improve his assist rate and efficiency.
His steals rate did drop substantially this season, and it would be nice to see that return to at least his career average (1.5) given his lack of value in other areas.
32. Ja Morant
(PG, Memphis Grizzlies)
2024-25 stats: 23.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG
7.3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG
45.4 FG%, 30.9 3P%, 82.4 FT%
Ja Morant had a rocky campaign with injury setbacks, controversy surrounding his celebrations, and rumors about his role in the firing of longtime Memphis head coach Taylor Jenkins. Yet he still managed to post stats mostly in line with his career averages.
His scoring average did dip by 1.9 points from last season and 4.2 points from his Most Improved Player season in 2021-22, but in seven regular season games following Jenkins’ departure, he was a more aggressive scorer, averaging 28.4 PPG and 8.3 three-point attempts. If Morant can find his way back to his 2021-23 form, this could easily be the steal of the fourth round.
33. Tyler Herro
(SG, Miami Heat)
2024-25 stats: 23.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG
5.5 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG
47.2 FG%, 37.5 3P%, 87.8 FT%
Taking over Jimmy Butler’s role as the Heat’s primary offensive playmaker, Tyler Herro had his best season in the NBA, posting career-highs in PPG, APG, SPG, and field goal percentage. Herro also converted a career-high 251 three-pointers and was one of the best snipers from distance in the league.
Although he does not give you much defensively and may face increased pressure from opposing defenses next season, Herro’s upward trends in scoring and playmaking are well worth an early-round selection.
34. Jaren Jackson Jr.
(C, Memphis Grizzlies)
2024-25 stats: 22.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG
2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.5 BPG
48.8 FG%, 37.5 3P%, 78.1 FT%
Jaren Jackson Jr. is a poor rebounder for a center but remains a dynamic scorer and elite defender.
After attempting just 12.5 field goals per game his first five seasons, Jackson Jr.’s usage shot up the past two years, as he averaged 17.6 in 2023-24 and 16.4 this past season. In year two of this bump in attempts, Jackson Jr.’s efficiency, both overall and from deep, improved dramatically.
At the same time, Jackson Jr. racks up stats defensively, averaging 2.7 stocks per game in 2024-25, not quite the 4.0 peak from his 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year Campaign, but very good for fantasy purposes. Jackson Jr. is a versatile star who should not make it out of the fourth round if you can look past the meager rebounding totals.
35. Alperen Sengun
(C, Houston Rockets)
2024-25 stats: 19.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG
4.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG
49.6 FG%, 23.3 3P%, 69.2 FT%
Despite a moderate decline in efficiency, Alperen Sengun had another terrific season and was a driving force behind Houston’s accelerated rebuild and ascension to the two-seed in the Western Conference. The big man played 76 games, averaging a double-double for the first time and maintaining a relatively high assist rate for a center.
Seen by many as a team one star away from contention, the Rockets are expected to be active this offseason, so keep an eye out for any move that could impact Sengun’s fantasy stock. Regardless of his circumstances, Sengun will remain a uniquely talented center worthy of at least a fourth-round selection.
36. Bam Adebayo
(C, Miami Heat)
2024-25 stats: 18.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG
4.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG
48.5 FG%, 35.7 3P%, 76.5 FT%
Back in January, we discussed how Bam Adebayo shied away from three-pointers his entire career before spontaneously discovering his shooting stroke down the stretch of 2023-24. This season, a similar but even more pronounced phenomenon transpired.
Over his first 42 appearances, Adebayo shot just 26.7% from deep on 2.5 attempts per game. For the remainder of the season, he shot 44.0% on 3.2 attempts per game. This remarkable turnaround is hard to understand or explain, but curiously it did coincide with Miami’s trade of franchise star Jimmy Butler in February.
Whatever the explanation may be, Adebayo is an elite big man who has added a three-point dimension to his game. If you are patient enough to let his distance shooting ramp up as the season progresses, this can be a high-value pick in the fourth round.
37. Trey Murphy III
(SF, New Orleans Pelicans)
2024-25 stats: 21.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG
3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG
45.4 FG%, 36.1 3P%, 88.7 FT%
Trey Murphy III made a huge jump from year three to year four and was firmly in the Most Improved Player race before a torn labrum prematurely ended his season in mid-March. Murphy’s averages shot up across the board and even his overall efficiency climbed modestly with the significantly elevated usage.
Murphy’s trajectory has to be attractive to fantasy managers and Pelicans fans alike, but expectations need to be tempered a bit simply because there are so many mouths to feed in New Orleans. CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, and Dejounte Murray will all need to get their looks, and the latter two missed significant time last season. Their returns do not necessarily harm Murphy’s fantasy outlook, but may not help much given Murphy’s lack of a distributor skillset.
38. Scottie Barnes
(PF, Toronto Raptors)
2024-25 stats: 19.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG
5.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG
44.6 FG%, 27.1 3P%, 75.5 FT%
Scottie Barnes took a step back in year four after his first All-Star appearance in 2023-24. His PPG, RPG, APG, and BPG all took a hit, and his drop in efficiency was perhaps the most disappointing trend. Barnes posted career lows in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage.
His three-point efficiency was particularly concerning as it nosedived from 34.1% to 27.1% without a significant change in attempts. Barnes is still quite young (he’ll be 24 entering next season) and posted an impressive overall stat line including 2.4 stocks per game. As Toronto’s star player, Barnes should have every opportunity to get things back on track in 2025-26.
39. De’Aaron Fox
(PG, San Antonio Spurs)
2024-25 stats: 23.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG
6.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.4 BPG
46.3 FG%, 31.0 3P%, 82.7 FT%
De’Aaron Fox’s Spurs career did not get off to an ideal start as his production and efficiency fell off substantially from his numbers in Sacramento before his season ended prematurely due to a pinky injury. After the blockbuster trade in February, Fox averaged just 19.7 PPG and shot 27.4% from deep. That said, his assist rate did climb and his shooting struggles can be chalked up to getting acclimated to his new surroundings.
More concerning for Fox’s fantasy value was the Spurs’ luck in the draft lottery when they shot up to the number two selection and are now widely expected to select Rutgers guard Dylan Harper. This could allow Fox to excel in an off-ball role with a ball-dominant star in Harper but creates a logjam at guard with Fox, Harper, Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, and Chris Paul all needing significant touches.
Keep an eye on how San Antonio’s front office handles this situation and if all four guards remain on the roster by October, dock Fox a few spots on your draft board.
40. Kawhi Leonard
(SF, Los Angeles Clippers)
2024-25 stats: 21.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG
3.1 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG
49.8 FG%, 41.1 3P%, 81.0 FT%
If Kawhi Leonard could remain healthy for a full season, he would easily be worthy of a second or even first-round pick. Unfortunately, that just has not been the case over the course of his career and that needs to be taken into account when evaluating his draft stock.
Leonard played just 37 regular season games in 2024-25 but looked like the elite player we know and love when he stepped on the court. His scoring average fell off a bit, but he shot over 41% from distance for the third straight season and maintained a high steals rate. Picking Leonard simply comes down to how much injury risk you are willing to tolerate.