Most MLB teams have played about 50 games so far, which puts us nearly a third of the way through the baseball season. With a significant chunk of the year behind us, let’s predict how the American League All-Star lineup will shape up come July.
Keep in mind that these rosters are not only based on performance thus far but also expected performance for the rest of the first half. Keep a look out for the predicted National League lineup next week.
Cal Raleigh
(C, Seattle)
The Mariners currently sit atop the American League West leaderboard. Their success is due in no small part to Raleigh, who leads all MLB catchers with a 2.8 fWAR, 16 home runs, and 171 wRC+. It’s been a career year for the 28-year-old, who is on a 53-homer pace and already holds the record for long balls by a Mariners catcher.
A sustainable increase in batting average from .220 last season to .253 this year is the result of much-improved performance against left-handers. Last season, Raleigh hit .183 against southpaws. This year, he’s hitting .281 and performing significantly better on offspeed pitches.
Spencer Torkelson
(1B, Detroit)
Not only does he lead American League first basemen in a plethora of categories (fWAR, SLG, HR, RBI, R) but he’s also been a key reason the surging Tigers currently hold the best record in Major League Baseball.
That type of impact is a major boon to Torkelson’s All-Star hopes. While it’s easy to be initially hesitant about Torkelson’s success – we’ve seen flashes of breakouts before, only to be let down – his expected numbers are excellent. Torkelson’s xSLG is even higher than his AL-best .523 mark, and he’s lifting the ball in the air more this season.
After struggling mightily with punchouts last season, Torkelson has a much more manageable 23.9% strikeout rate this season. Swinging more often on the first pitch of the plate appearance has helped him get ahead in the count, which is a tangible approach change that indicates future success.
Kody Clemens
(2B, Minnesota)
While there’s no obvious choice to start at second base for the junior circuit, Clemens is making as good a case as any. Not only does he rank third among American League second basemen in fWAR, but he also boasts a ridiculous .336 xBA and .648 xSLG that indicate his success isn’t due to luck.
Clemens also increased his bat speed by 2.6 MPH from last season, which has significantly boosted his power production. His first-pitch swing rate has skyrocketed from 18.3% last season to 29.8% this season, which means he’s behind in the count less often. Last season, he saw 33.3% of his pitches while behind in the count. This year, that rate is down to 26.3%.
Clemens has also upped his wOBA in such counts to .296 from a paltry .174 last season. Among star second basemen in the American League right now, he’s the one most likely to continue his success until the All-Star break.
Bobby Witt Jr.
(SS, Kansas City)
Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is making a valiant push for this spot, but it’s Witt Jr.’s to lose heading into the final lap. After rising to stardom in 2023 and cementing his spot as a face of the game last season, Witt Jr. will almost certainly get the majority of fan votes and secure his first All-Star start.
Besides leading the pack with a 2.8 fWAR, Witt Jr. boasts a .305/.368/.508 slash line to go along with outstanding defense. The Royals star has already accumulated eight outs above average this season, which ranks first among American League second basemen.
His all-around talents – blazing speed, light-tower power, contact skills, and strong defense – will make him a mainstay in the All-Star lineup for years to come.
Alex Bregman
(3B, Boston)
Bregman participated in the 2018 and 2019 Home Run Derbies during the All-Star break but was eliminated in the first round both years. Perhaps he would have better luck this season; he leads American League third basemen with 11 home runs.
Bregman also paces the field with 17 doubles. The extra-base hits are the result of an increased number of pulled fly balls and line drives, which he has hit more often this season than during any other.
While his batting average will likely regress due to a career-high strikeout rate and .254 xBA, Bregman’s done enough already to start at the keystone for the American League in the All-Star game.
Aaron Judge
(Outfield, New York)
Judge is having a historic season. He could strike out in every plate appearance from now until the All-Star voting and still probably be named a starter. As of this writing, the Yankees captain has a .400 batting average (73 points higher than Anthony Santander’s slugging percentage) and a ridiculous 1.247 OPS. He’s driven in 45 runs, many of which have come on one of his 17 home runs.
His career resume already includes two AL MVP awards, Rookie of the Year, six All-Star appearances, home run derby champion, four-time silver slugger award winner, and Clemente award winner.
Judge will end his career as one of the greatest hitters of all time. Let’s enjoy it while we can.
Byron Buxton
(Outfield, Minnesota)
While he’s struggled to stay on the field for most of his career, Buxton is one of the best players in baseball when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s currently on the injured list with a concussion. If he can accumulate enough playing time before the All-Star game, he has a good shot to represent the American League when the starting lineups are called.
The Twins outfielder is slashing .261/.312/.522 this season. He’s driven 10 home runs and has played his typical above-average defense in the outfield. This would only be the second All-Star appearance for Buxton, who has accumulated 26.6 career WAR. While his expected stats lag slightly behind his actual production, Buxton’s talent is clear every time he takes the field.
Riley Greene
(Outfield, Detroit)
Although he ranks 7th in fWAR among American League outfielders this season, Greene has garnered both the media attention – Detroit is currently the second-best team in baseball – and counting stats to start in the All-Star game.
With 12 home runs, a .281/.337/.521 slash line and the profile of a former first-rounder, Greene could be well on his way to Atlanta this summer.
Rafael Devers
(Designated Hitter, Boston)
After a very slow start to the season and some tensions with ownership, Rafael Devers has been excellent between the lines. He leads American League designated hitters with a 1.7 fWAR and trails only Brent Rooker with 10 home runs. The only two hitters with slugging percentages higher than Devers’ .521 mark are Jorge Polanco and Ben Rice, neither of whom have the track record or national recognition that Devers has.
The former third baseman switched to the designated hitter position this season. It’s worked out well for him. Devers is hitting the ball as hard as he ever has while optimizing his launch angles. Last season, Devers had a 63rd percentile Launch Angle Sweet-Spot rate (per Baseball Savant). This year, he ranks in the 96th percentile in the same metric.
Hunter Brown
(Starting Pitcher, Houston)
Brown is gaining recognition as one of the best young starters in baseball. Among AL starters, he ranks 6th in ERA (2.04), 7th in IP (61.2), 4th in WHIP (0.91), and 5th in strikeouts (71).
Brown and Eovaldi are the only two American League starting pitchers this season to rank in the top five in both strikeouts and WHIP. While Eovaldi has a 3.23 xERA and subpar barrel rates and exit velocities, Brown has a 2.94 mark with a 98th percentile opponent average exit velocity. Sustainable dominance will power Brown to his first of what could be multiple career All-Star game starts.
While we won’t know for sure until starters are revealed in July, the players above are well on their way to starting in the MLB All-Star game. Make sure to check back next week for the National League’s projected starting lineup.