We’re through about a quarter of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. At this point, statistics are beginning to hold more weight than they did in the first couple weeks of the year. Players who’ve performed well thus far are fairly likely to continue their success, and time is beginning to dwindle for players – or teams – off to cold starts.
Among hitters who have performed surprisingly well this year, a select few have the underlying metrics to back it up. This week, we’re also breaking down one player not to pick up on the waiver wire – one who seems enticing at first but is due for regression. Make sure to check back next week for a Week 10 fantasy baseball waiver wire breakdown.
Best Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9
Andrew Vaughn
(1B, Chicago White Sox)
Percent Rostered (Fantrax): 44%
Vaughn, who was made the third overall pick by the White Sox in 2019, is struggling by every basic measure this season. His .186 batting average is a large reason he’s only rostered in 44% of Fantrax leagues, and a career-high 23.3% strikeout rate (per Baseball Savant) doesn’t help his cause.
However, the stats not reflected on the back of the baseball card are the ones indicating more success for the right-handed slugger. Vaughn is currently slugging at a .320 clip, which is significantly below his 65th percentile .458 xSLG.
Hitting the ball hard has not been a problem for Vaughn this season – his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all rank him in the top fifth of MLB hitters. Although his very low walk rate does present some concern, his power should soon make up for it. Don’t expect Vaughn to stay unlucky for this long; he’s bound to get hot soon.
Andrew McCutchen
(OF, Pittsburgh)
Percent Rostered (Fantrax): 22%
Perhaps a lack of success this year compared to his prime has dropped enthusiasm in McCutchen, but it presents a large opportunity to snag a player whose performance has been extremely valuable this season.
McCutchen is only rostered in 22% of Fantrax leagues, likely because his power numbers are down this season. His .126 ISO is easily the worst of his career, and he only has three home runs so far after belting 20 last season.
While he isn’t hitting for lots of power, that could be changing soon. Not only does his batting average lag behind his expected statistics but so does his slugging percentage. McCutchen’s expected slash line of .278/.375/.474 results in an .849 xOPS, which would be the highest of his career since 2018. And unlike many other players on the waiver wire, McCutchen is hitting the ball hard and making regular contact.
“Cutch” owns a 15.5% strikeout rate, which is in the 83rd percentile of qualified MLB hitters. McCutchen is also on a bit of a hot streak at the moment.
His current rolling .365 xwOBA over a 100-plate appearance span is significantly above league average, making now an opportune time to pick up a widely available former superstar.
Jacob Misiorowski
(SP, Milwaukee)
Percent Rostered (Fantrax): 55%
After throwing a pitch 103 MPH in his most recent outing at Triple-A, Misiorowski and his elite arsenal could be headed to Milwaukee shortly. He’s up to 55% rostered in Fantrax leagues – likely due to the recent buzz around his stuff and seemingly inevitable callup – but could still be available in many leagues.
There’s nothing not to like about the 6’7 right-hander. In 8 starts this season for Triple-A Nashville, MLB Pipeline’s #72 overall prospect has a 1.46 ERA to go along with 59 strikeouts in 49.1 innings pitched.
Misiorowski’s stuff is as good as anyone’s in the minor leagues, and perhaps rivals that of the best arms at the Major League level. His fastball tops out well into triple digits and is an 80/80 on the MLB Pipeline scale. Two filthy breaking balls – a curveball and slider – round out the main weapons for Misiorowski, who was drafted out of Crowder Junior College in Missouri.
While his control receives only a 40 grade, he’s pounded the strike zone at a much higher clip this year. Issuing only 19 walks in 49.1 innings has helped him limit baserunners, especially when they struggle to make solid contact against the future ace.
Max Kepler
(OF, Philadelphia)
Percent Rostered (Fantrax): 57%
Like Vaughn and McCutchen, Kepler’s surface stats don’t paint a pretty picture. A .217 batting average and .676 OPS from a corner outfielder with a solid offensive reputation isn’t what the Phillies were looking for when they acquired Kepler this offseason, but he’s due to turn it around.
Kepler has hit the ball very hard this year, which gives reason for hope. Kepler doesn’t have many clear holes in his offensive game this season – he ranks above-average among qualified hitters in all of the following categories, along with just 10 other hitters: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, Hard-Hit Rate, Squared-Up Rate, Chase Rate, Whiff Rate, Strikeout Rate, and Walk Rate.
His all-around offensive consistency and bad luck so far this season make him a great pickup for fantasy baseball managers, especially considering he’s available in 57% of Fantrax leagues.
One Player to Avoid in Week 9
Harrison Bader
(OF, Minnesota)
While Bader’s percent rostered is trending up, his underlying stats are trending down. Despite hitting .300 with a 73rd-percentile Hard-Hit Rate this season, Bader is not a good pickup for fantasy managers.
All of Bader’s expected statistics lag significantly behind his actual production. His actual slash line of .300/.384/.464 is very good, but his expected slash line of .233/.326/.369 is a large red flag. The Twins outfielder doesn’t have a strong history at the plate either; as a defensive-first player, his career OPS is a meager .704. Don’t get fooled by his very good surface numbers. Bader is due for regression.
Week 9 of the fantasy baseball season brings a lot of upside on the waiver wire. From multiple veterans putting up sneaky-good seasons to a future ace waiting in the wings, there is no shortage of impact talent for fantasy baseball managers to choose from.
Just make sure to carefully evaluate players who seem too good to be true – because they likely are. Want more quality fantasy baseball coverage? Head here.