With the dust beginning to settle following the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s time to start evaluating the 2025 Fantasy Football landscape with a better understanding of team composition. This series will highlight the NFL teams that went through significant changes in the offseason and offer fantasy upside.
I start this series with the team that I think made the biggest improvements yet doesn’t get the fantasy love that it deserves due to some misconceptions. That’s the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers, with Greg Roman as the play-caller and Jim Harbaugh as head coach, are widely seen as an old-fashioned, run-heavy football team that has limited fantasy upside. I think that in fantasy spaces this narrative is driving itself without much analytical backing. For that reason, though, there’s plenty of fantasy value to be had.
I’ll start off with a breakdown of the changes the Chargers went through this offseason, followed by my argument for why we can’t just view the Chargers as a run-heavy team, and finally an examination of the Chargers’ 2025 Fantasy Football values.
Offseason Changes
The Chargers may have gone through the most drastic offensive restructuring of any team that has a returning quarterback in 2025. While Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey remain at the core of this offense, there were major changes around them.
At running back, the Chargers went with a full overhaul. Last year’s backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both gone, replaced by Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton.
Harris signed in free agency to a one-year deal fully guaranteed. He will certainly have a role in the offense this year, but it’s unlikely he’s seen as a long-term piece. Instead, the Chargers drafted their running back of the future in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. Hampton was widely regarded as the 2nd best running back prospect in a very strong class.
At wide receiver, Josh Palmer, the Chargers’ 3rd highest targeted player in 2024 left the team for Buffalo in free agency. The Chargers took Tre Harris in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft, while Mike Williams returns to the Chargers on a one-year full guaranteed deal.
The Chargers also added to the tight end position with Tyler Conklin and spent a 5th round pick on Oronde Gadsden.
A Misconception of the Chargers’ Identity
Before getting into which players in this offense will overachieve their fantasy expectations, I want to give context to why this offence as a whole could significantly outpace expectations, especially in the passing game.
Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh have a history of run-heavy offensive teams. When the Chargers brought in their new coaching staff last offseason, the predominant expectation was that the Harbaugh and Roman would bring that type of playstyle to Los Angeles. What wasn’t properly considered though, is that this coaching staff has an exceptional, young quarterback.
Justin Herbert is not a luxury that Harbaugh’s offences have had in the past. While coaches certainly have tendencies, the best coaches mold their plan to the players available to them.
We now have a season of data to look into so that we can attempt to figure out what this offence’s identity is. The baseline figures don’t show quite the run-heavy offence many expected. The Chargers ranked 10th in percentage of plays running the ball.
When you dig deeper the situation seems even more detached from what expectations were. Herbert suffered a plantar fascia injury that required him to be in a walking boot for two weeks and miss the majority of training camp.
That type of injury is known to reduce mobility. It also led to Herbert missing the majority of his opportunity to become accustomed to a new playbook and grow his rapport with rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey.
The Chargers had a Week 5 bye, and looking at the Chargers’ play calling habits before and after the bye shows a significant change. In the 4 weeks before the bye, as Herbert was arguably still recovering from his injury and certainly was still becoming familiar with the offense, the Chargers ran the ball 53% of the time – a figure which would rank 2nd in the NFL last season.
After the bye though, they only ran the ball less than 44% of the time, ranking 16th in the NFL.
JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards certainly isn’t an inspiring backfield to rely on, but that argument can also go for the receiving group. McConkey was a rookie that had minimal reps with his new quarterback through training camp, and Quentin Johnston, Palmer, and Will Dissly are far from a lethal receiving unit.
Jim Harbaugh’s infatuation with his quarterback became a meme in fantasy circles last offseason, but it’s reached new heights this year with Harbaugh saying his goal is to get Herbert into the Hall of Fame. If Harbaugh is serious about that goal, it’s unlikely to happen by taking the ball out of his hands more often.
Values for Fantasy
In this section I’ll evaluate which players from the Chargers’ offense will outproduce their ADPs. At this point in the offseason, Underdog Fantasy offers the most accurate ADP figures due to the volume of drafts held on that site, which is why I’ll use Underdog ADP here.
Justin Herbert
Current ADP – QB14
2024 Finish – QB15
After reading the previous section, it should be no surprise that I think Herbert is a great value for fantasy this season. After the Week 5 bye for the Chargers, Herbert averaged 18.3 ppg, which would have ranked as QB11 on the season. We’ve already seen Herbert put up QB1 numbers in this offence, and now his weapons are improving.
The talent isn’t a question here. Herbert already has 3 QB1 finishes in fantasy in his career, including the QB2 in his 2nd season. What’s holding him back is the perception that this is a run-first team (which I argue against in the section above) and that his weapons aren’t great. That 2nd point is one I can’t agree with for 2025.
Tre Harris was my 3rd ranked wide receiver in the 2025 class. He brings a great combination of ability to win deep and create separation on in-breaking routes. Harris will be an excellent complement to McConkey and allows Johnston to settle into a more appropriate role. Harris being taken in the back half of the 2nd round is likely due to him being an older prospect. Being an older prospect just means he’ll be able to produce for fantasy right away.
Ladd McConkey absolutely blew away expectations in his rookie season. With what I expect to be better separation on the outside from Harris than the Chargers had last year, and an improved offensive line and running back room, McConkey could see even more space to operate in 2025. Add in that McConkey and Herbert didn’t have much time to build chemistry in training camp and there’s a lot of reasons to be confident about another leap in 2025.
Omarion Hampton is also a productive receiver out of the backfield and will likely be used that way often in a Greg Roman offence that likes to involve running backs in the passing game. Hampton isn’t just a between the tackles rusher, he can help further elevate Herbert’s game by providing an explosive check down option.
The Chargers are not a run-first team, and showed that they were willing to put the ball in Herbert’s hands more and more as the season progressed. This offseason the Chargers made multiple significant additions to help improve the passing game around Herbert. It would be no surprise to me if Herbert finishes the season as a top 6 quarterback for fantasy.
Tre Harris
Current ADP – WR53
2024 Finish – N/A
Tre Harris’ ADP is suffering from the same perception that the Chargers are going to be a run-first team that plague’s Herbert’s ADP. In reality, Harris is entering one of the best situations for a rookie wide receiver. He’s been drafted to a team with a franchise quarterback, hall of fame head coach, and the only established target competition plays primarily out of the slot.
Beyond the excellent situation though, Harris has the production to back-up a bullish stance. Harris’ final college season was cut short due to injury.
Still, Harris finished with the 11th most receiving yards in the 2025 receiver class despite playing 4 less games than 9/10 of the players that finished above him. Harris was on pace for 1545 yards, which would have been 163 yards more than the top yardage receiver in all of FBS last year.
If the Chargers continue their increased passing trend from later year post-bye week, this offence could certainly produce another top 36 wide receiver, and Harris is the most likely candidate to fill that role.
Omarion Hampton
Current ADP – RB15
2024 Finish – N/A
It may be a surprise that I’m including Hampton here after arguing how this offence is wrongly considered to be run-first. While I don’t see the Chargers being a leader in rushing attempts, I do think they could be a very high scoring team, and Hampton will be a big part of that. That's the situation we want to target for 2025 Fantasy Football.
Simply, Hampton is a very good running back. He does everything well. He can find holes running inside, he has the breakaway speed to bounce a run outside, and he’s a proficient pass catcher.
In his final year in college, Hampton ranked 3rd among the 2025 class with 373 receiving yards and 2nd in missed tackles forced on his receptions. Hampton really was the entire North Carolina offense, so it’s not surprising he was used as a receiver, but that he was so successful in his opportunities despite being specifically game planned for shows his ability as a receiver.
While Najee Harris does provide some competition, it’s much more likely that Harris was seen as a fallback option should Hampton not be available for the Chargers – as evidenced by his one year deal. Harris doesn’t complement Hampton particularly well and he’s also not particularly good in high value fantasy situations.
He’s been fairly mediocre around the goal line, and he’s nothing special as a pass catcher. This means Harris will likely be tasked with mixing in to lightening the load for the lead back in Hampton, rather than dominating touches in any high fantasy-value situations specifically.
The Chargers have also built a situation very favourable for an effective run game. The Chargers had already established one of the best tackle duos in the league with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but this offseason they also added to their interior offensive line with Mekhi Becton and Andre James.
With Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman known to develop strong run-games and the trenches being built out, Hampton is entering a situation where his own ability is the only question mark.
For fantasy football, high volume is no longer needed to finish as an RB1. Over the past 3 years, 20 of the 36 top 12 finishers had 250 or less carries on the season. These aren’t the workhorse backs of the old days that brute forced their way to fantasy dominance. So Hampton doesn’t need Najee Harris to disappear or for the Chargers to run the ball 500+ times to finish as an RB1.
Hampton’s path to be a top 12 running back as a rookie is similar to how I’d describe his skillset – balanced. He doesn’t need to have 300+ carries, but 250 is an entirely reasonable expectation. He doesn’t need to catch 60+ passes, but there’s a clear path to 40-50 receptions. He doesn’t need 15+ touchdowns, but finding the endzone 10 times is likely for a player of his caliber on a good offense.
I don’t expect Hampton to lead the league in any single stat, but in a good situation with his talent, I think there’s plenty of avenues for him to be an RB1 for fantasy as a rookie.